Introduction

Artificial intelligence is profoundly reshaping the production and lifestyle of human society, becoming a significant driving force in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. In 2025, the State Council issued the “Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of the ‘Artificial Intelligence+’ Action,” proposing that “by 2035, our country will fully enter a new stage of intelligent economy and intelligent society development.” In this process, artificial intelligence will have a far-reaching impact on employment and the labor market.

Significant Technological Revolution and Employment

Historically, every major technological revolution has had a profound and lasting impact on employment structure and income distribution. During the First Industrial Revolution, new technologies represented by steam engine technology significantly improved production efficiency and reshaped the labor demand structure in countries like the UK by replacing manual labor with machines, leading to a relative increase in returns to capital and technology and a decrease in the bargaining power of low-skilled workers. The Second Industrial Revolution, marked by the electrical revolution, further promoted changes in mass production and corporate organization, deepening labor division and occupational differentiation. Subsequently, the emergence of computer technology and the information technology revolution in the 1940s and 1950s are widely regarded as important technological factors contributing to the widening income distribution gap in Western countries. Currently, the rapid iteration of artificial intelligence technology is gradually revealing its impact on the labor market and income distribution.

Theoretically, the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market can be categorized into two main effects. The first is the employment substitution effect, where artificial intelligence technology replaces certain existing labor tasks through automation and intelligence, leading to a decrease or even disappearance of related job demands, thereby exerting pressure on specific skill sets and worker groups. The second is the employment creation effect, where the emergence and diffusion of new technologies not only give rise to new industrial forms and production segments but also create a series of new job demands, including high-skilled positions like algorithm engineers and data scientists, as well as relatively lower-skilled roles such as algorithm trainers and digital marketers. However, the balance between these two effects and their manifestation at different stages requires further observation.

Recent studies indicate that while artificial intelligence exerts substitution pressure on certain jobs, it also promotes employment by generating new tasks, industries, and professions. According to a report from the World Economic Forum, from 2025 to 2030, trends in artificial intelligence and information processing technology are expected to lead to the replacement of approximately 9 million jobs, while simultaneously creating around 11 million new jobs. Research from the International Labour Organization shows that about a quarter of global jobs may be affected by generative artificial intelligence, but a more likely outcome is a transformation of job content and skill structures rather than large-scale complete replacement.

Thus, while the overall impact of artificial intelligence on employment remains uncertain, its role in reshaping the structure of the labor market is inevitable. Compared to traditional automation, generative artificial intelligence possesses characteristics of knowledge deepening and knowledge expansion. On one hand, it significantly reduces the costs of knowledge production, replication, and dissemination by efficiently processing vast amounts of information and learning implicit experiences to automate complex cognitive tasks. On the other hand, with a certain degree of autonomy and decision-making capability, it breaks through existing cognitive boundaries, continuously driving the exploration and creation of new knowledge. The impact of artificial intelligence on employment is no longer limited to the replacement of simple, procedural tasks but is increasingly penetrating cognitive activities such as information processing, analysis, judgment, and content generation. Particularly for intellectual labor, the substitutability of complex tasks that rely on rule-based reasoning and knowledge integration is continually increasing.

Key Factors to Consider

The impact of artificial intelligence on the total employment, structure, and income distribution also depends on several key factors.

1. Direction of Technological Progress: If advancements in artificial intelligence primarily manifest as substitution-type technologies, the employment substitution effect may dominate, placing downward pressure on overall employment. Conversely, if technological progress is more aligned with employment-friendly technologies, it will play a greater role in promoting the expansion of employment scale and quality.

2. Labor Skill Structure: If the labor skill structure closely matches the direction of artificial intelligence technology development, workers can quickly upgrade their skills and transition to new tasks and positions, making it easier for the employment creation effect of artificial intelligence to take the lead. Conversely, if skill structure adjustments lag behind technological progress, and workers lack retraining and redeployment capabilities, the risk of structural unemployment will increase, making the substitution effect more pronounced.

3. Public Policy System: The design of public policies in areas such as education and training, employment services, social security, and income distribution will directly affect the speed and cost of labor adjustments under the influence of artificial intelligence. If the policy system can timely adapt to the development of artificial intelligence technology, improve mechanisms for lifelong learning, strengthen support for job transitions, and optimize social security arrangements, it will help mitigate substitution effects and amplify the “productivity dividend.” Conversely, if policy adjustments lag, it may exacerbate the negative impacts of technological progress on employment.

Exploring Effective Responses to Change

Further attention to the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and guiding and promoting the enhancement of work quality and efficiency through artificial intelligence has become a consensus. Currently, the employment substitution caused by automation has not yet reached large-scale levels, necessitating ongoing exploration of effective responses to these changes in practice.

1. Encouraging Employment-Friendly AI Innovations: Innovate policies to encourage more employment-friendly artificial intelligence technology innovations. This includes fiscal subsidies, tax incentives, and public procurement that prioritize AI technologies capable of enhancing labor productivity, expanding labor participation, and generating new tasks.

2. Reforming the Education System: Incorporate artificial intelligence-related knowledge and skills training into all levels of the education system, strengthen the cultivation of data analysis and AI technology literacy, and solidify students’ foundational abilities to adapt to the AI era.

3. Establishing a Regular Employment Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism: Utilize public employment service platforms to integrate information on employment registration, social security contributions, recruitment demands, and job changes, establishing a regular employment monitoring and early warning mechanism.

4. Strengthening Support for Retraining and Job Transition: Implement support policies focused on specialized training for workers who find it difficult to directly adapt to changes brought about by artificial intelligence technology, focusing on developing transferable skills.

5. Improving the Social Security System: Further enhance the social security system covering unemployed groups and workers in new employment forms, and strengthen the connection between unemployment insurance and employment assistance, vocational training, and reemployment services.